NIAS Europe Studies

Photo Source: Fabian Sommer/dpa via AP/Euronews
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1208, 26 January 2024
NIAS Europe Studies
Farmers' protests highlight economic stress and a rising far-right in the EU

  Rosemary Kurian

About the Author
Rosemary Kurian is an Undergraduate Scholar under the Department of International Relations, Peace and Public Policy at St Joseph's University, Bangalore. Her research interests include Middle East, Europe, Energy and Climate.

Farmers protests highlight economic stress and a rising far-right in the EU
By Rosemary Kurian

The beginning of 2024 is marred with protests by farmers in several EU states. German farmers crowded the streets in all 16 federal states of Germany, expressing their disapproval of the government’s decision to phase out subsidies for diesel used in farmyard vehicles. Berlin was brought to a standstill when farmers made a political statement by blocking the streets in front of the Bundestag. Germany joined a series of farmer protests across Europe, including Poland, Spain and France, over unfavourable subsidy cuts, budget hikes, EU green policies and ripple effects of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
 
Similarly, farmers in Romania returned to the streets of Bucharest after failed negotiations over concerns of high tax rates and delayed compensation of loss suffered during droughts. The Russian blockade of the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea has opened Romania up as a transit hub for Ukraine, which has threatened local produce over displacement by Ukrainian companies. Polish farmers implemented blockades to force Donald Tusk’s government to regulate the import of Ukrainian grains into the EU border, highlighting the need for greater EU regulation of grains from Ukraine to protect EU markets.
 
Why are the European governments under stress?
Germany’s centre-left coalition government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues to experience an economic crunch after the pandemic, followed by its decision to support Ukraine, and a war-triggered energy crisis. Germany, often considered  Europe’s superpower, was on its way to become the only G7 country with a shrinking economy in 2023. Additionally, Germany is grappling with an emergency spending freeze after the Constitutional court prohibited the diversion of an unused Covid fund towards climate goals. Amid the budget crisis, the Green Party in the coalition denies compromising on the government’s climate goals and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) insists on major budget cuts.
 
In the case of Romania, the concern remains securing a deal with the EU, much like most eastern European countries, to prevent the free trade of grain from Ukraine, which could address some demands for compensation by the farmers. Whereas in Poland, the newly appointed Prime Minister Donald Tusk, struggles to strike a balance between his promises of a pro-EU approach and support for protesting farmers. The previous government headed by the Law and Justice Party (PiS) was highly Eurosceptic, whereas Tusk vowed to better his relations with Brussels, but faces challenge from the PiS with a risk of overturning their policies. Therefore, while Tusk has decided to reject the EU proposition of avoiding tariffs for Ukrainian imports, his path remains one of strategic compromise. For the time being, a deal has been reached, granting compensation to Polish farmers through corn subsidies, and maintaining agricultural taxes at 2023 levels. The unregulated border with Ukraine remains a point of contention.
 
What role does the EU play?
Farmers across Europe, spanning from France and the Netherlands to Germany and Poland, are protesting to reinstate the status quo. While each protest is independent and rooted in domestic policy complexities, the larger questions of economic sustainability and environment regulations place the EU policy at the centre of the crisis, especially its ambitious climate targets by 2030 that farmers refuse to implement. The EU’s ambitious ‘Farm to Fork’ strategy urges halving the use of fertilisers and doubling organic production in farmlands. To the EU, the agricultural sector is the “problem child” in its green ambitions. Governments had urged the shutting up of certain farms due to nitrous oxide emission rates (the Netherlands) and allowed free import of produce from Ukraine post the war began, under common EU policy guidelines. However, the protests have urged independent governments to scale back on such policy decisions, even if it meant a conflict with the EU’s vision.
 
How are far-right parties utilising the protests?
When farmers’ protests first began in the Netherlands, it created a new rural political party under the banner of the Farmer-Citizens’ Movement that won in the local elections. In Germany, far-right parties like the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) are gaining support through slogans of “Germany first” in its Eurosceptic and populist approach. Many believe that the AfD aims at bringing down Scholz’s government by using the momentum of
the protests. Most farmers are conservative and in Germany, their support extends to the Christian Conservative parties in a bid against climate policies. Far right groups like AfD have used the protests opportunely, the most shocking being the ferry attack of Robert Habeck, the German Vice-Chancellor, and his family. He saw potential of the far-right “jeopardising the law and the rule of law”. While the farmers have denied any interest towards fringe groups, the far-right continues to piggyback on their cause. The fear of most
centre-left governments is to prevent the spread of the far-right, a trend that has set foot across Europe.
 
What does it mean for EU Parliament elections?
Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission's President, is a staunch proponent of the European Green Deal, the EU’s green transition deal rejected by farmer unions due to demands of halving fossil fuels and doubling organic production. Ahead of the EU Parliament elections in June, von der Leyen aims to appease farmers through a “strategic dialogue” on 25 January, to heed to their grievances and cater to their needs. The farmers’ protests have become a focal election agenda among parties across the EU, and an opportunistic far-right has forced governments to recentre their strategies, one that von der Leyen too, wishes to utilise. While the AfD backs the farmers in their election agenda in Germany, Macron’s France is assessing candidates agreeable to the farmers’ cause. For the sake of elections, he is projecting himself as a traditionalist, and balancing green plans with the farmers’ cause. Aware of the threat that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally poses under the circumstances, officials suggest Julien Denormandie, the former farmer-friendly agriculture minister who left politics to join the private sector.
 
A report by the European Council on Foreign Relations predicted a right-leaning European Parliament in 2024, based on a poll. In states like Austria, France and Poland, the far-right are predicted to lead, with a close second in Germany, Spain, Sweden and Portugal. This could significantly raise euroscepticism among EU countries and hamper all climate policies. Amid economic concerns, potential democratic backsliding, momentum for the far-right parties and waning popularity for centre-left governments in Europe, the farmers’ protests could be a tipping point to achieve the above result.

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan